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SWS Daily Report - June 23, 2021


Overview

A generally quiet session today as the indices remained near their all time highs, with Nasdaq composite climbing 0.1% to reach another record. The SPX and Dow dropped slightly. Uncertainty remains about the competing factors of a recovering economy, strong stimulus spending and a helpful monetary policy with low interest rates and continued quantitative easing, balanced against the possibility of sustained inflation and the resulting increased interest rates. There are mixed comments from Fed officials about the probability of transient versus prolonged inflation and the effects on Fed policy. Sentiment seems to change daily, depending on economic data and the presumed effect this will have on Fed decisions. However, the markets are much calmer so far this week than last week. The fall of the VIX index dropped around 2%, getting close to its lowest value in 16 months.


Energy stocks rose after oil reached a 30 month high. Technology also did well.

Economy

New home sales dropped 5.9% in May to an adjusted 769,000. Expectations were a gain of 0.2%. This followed a 7.9% decline in April. Year over year, the median price increased 18% to 374,000 from 317,000, while the average was 420,000 compared with 369,000. The drop is attributed to a supply shortage of new homes and rising costs of lumber and other materials as well as labor. However, the inventory of new homes rose 4.8% from April.


The Market PMI for manufacturing in June rose 0.5 to a record 62.6 since data started in 2007. The expectation was for a drop to 61.5. The May value was 61.1. Services business activity dropped to 64.8 compared with the record 70.4 in May. Overall, these values continue to show evidence that the US economy grew in June, completing an unprecedented growth surge in the second quarter.


Economic news for June 24 include durable goods orders, initial and continuing unemployment claims, final corporate profits for the first quarter of 2021 and the final GDP value for the first quarter of 2021.


Markets

The SP 500 dropped by 0.11% to close at 4241.84. The index is up 0.43% over five days, up 1.09% over one month, up 9.07% over three months and up 39.06% over one year.

The trailing P/E is 37.23 compared with 27.38 one year ago and estimated future P/E 22.18. Dividend yield is currently 1.38 compared with 1.97 one year ago.

Leading stocks were TSLA up 5.27%, TWTR up 4.21%, UAA up 3.74%, F up 3.42% and UA up 3.20%.

Trailing stocks were NOV down 7.38%, CMCSA down 3.73%, FLT down 2.67%, HSIC down 2.55% and APD down 2.41%.


The Dow Jones industrial Average was down 0.21% to close at 33874.24. The DOW is down 0.47% over five days, down 1.31% over one month, up 4.49% over three months and up 33.12% over one year.

The trailing P/E is 28.88 compared with 21.49 year ago and an estimated future P/E of 19.62. The current dividend yield is 1.85% compared with 2.58 one year ago.

Leading stocks were DIS up 1.05%, GS up 0.98%, AXP up 0.92%, JPM up 0.61% and WBA up 0.60%.

Trailing stocks were MMM down 1.42%, IBM down 1.20%, INTC down 1.09%, CSCO down 0.94%, and KO down 0.81%.


The NASDAQ composite is up 0.13% and closed at 14271.73. NASDAQ has been up 1.65% over five days, up 3.89% over one month, up 10.11% over 3 months and up 44.03% over one year.

Leading stocks were ENTX up 44.77%, BLPH up 30.39%, ORPH up 24.62%, MOXC up 21.98% and LOOP up 20.98%.

Trailing stocks were GMTX down 31.53%, TRCH down 29.71%, ALF down 26.27%, EYES down 18.90% and MLND down 17.39%.


The MidCap SP400 rose by 0.09% to close at 2676.80. The SP400 has been down 1.09% for the past 5 days, down 1.18% for the past month, up 6.41% for the past 3 months and up 54.60% over the past year.

Leading stocks were RUN up 6.69%, COTY up 4.86% and TDC up 4.53%.

Trailing stocks were PDCO down 11.82%, MEDP down 3.79% and UTHR down 3.44%


The SmallCap SP600 was up 0.11% to close at 1368.83. The SP600 has dropped 1.49% for the past 5 days, up 0.46% for the past month, up 8.05% for the past 3 months and up 71.48% over the past year.

Leading stocks were STAR up 10.05%, SCVL up 6.77% and RRC up 6.63%.

Trailing stocks were OMI down 5.42%, CCRN down 3.81% and VTOL down 3.73%.


The CBOE VIX dropped 2.04% and closed at 16.32. The VIX is down 10.08% over five days, down 5.99% over one month, down 23.02% over three months and down 51.77% over one year.


On the New York stock exchange 1715 stocks advanced and 1563 declined, while on Nasdaq 2511 advanced and 1787 declined.

There were 177 new 52 week highs and 10 new 52 week lows on NYSE with 142 new highs and 31 new lows on NASDAQ.


The 2 year Treasury note yield is 0.265% and 10 year is 1.49%. The 10 year yield was down 2.3% over five days, down 11.9% over one month, down 14.2% three months ago, and up 80.1% one year ago.


SP500 Sector Performance % change

Consumer Discretionary + 0.63

Financials + 0.27

Energy + 0.26

Information Technology - 0.11

Communication Services - 0.21

Industrials - 0.27

Real Estate - 0.36

Health Care - 0.46

Consumer Staples - 0.57

Materials - 0.62

Utilities - 1.05

Consumer Discretionary has been up 2.35% over five days, up 2.75% over one month, up 8.52% over three months and up 36.23% over one year.

Utilities has been down 2.52% over five days, down 2.43% over one month, up 1.22% over three months and up 12.28% over one year.



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