Updated: Apr 28
The week ended lower with SP500 closing at 4180, down – 0.1%, Dow down – 0.5% to 34043 and NASDAQ down – 0.3% to 14017.
The smaller companies were mixed with mid cap SP400 down – 4.3% and small cap SP600 up 0.2%.
For the past 3 months, SP500 is up 8.8%, Dow up 9.8%, NASDAQ up 3.5%, SP400 up 11.5% and SP600 up 9.6%
Over the last 6 months, SP500 up 20.6%, Dow up 20.1%, NASDAQ up 21.4%, SP400 up 36.2% and SP600 up 44.5%
In past year SP500 is up 46.0%, Dow up 41.2%, NASDAQ up 62.8%, SP400 up 70.1% and SP600 up 77.4%
For the broad market indices, Dow has been best over the past 3 months, and NASDAQ over the past 6 and 12 months. Based on market cap, the small cap SP400 did best over the past 3 months and SP600 over the past 6 and 12 months.
For the SP sectors, the past week saw XLB (materials) up 0.2%, XLC (communications) down – 0.4%, XLE (energy) down – 1.9%, XLF (finance) flat at 0.0%, XLI (industrial) up 0.6%, XLK (technology) down – 0.4%, XLP (staples) down – 0.3%, XLRE (real estate) up 2.2%, XLU (utilities) down – 0.9%, XLV (health) up 1.8% and XLY (discretionary) down – 1.2%
For 3 months XLB up 11.4%, XLC up 11.2%, XLE up 12.8%, XLF up 16.8%, XLI up 14.8%, XLK up 7.5%, XLP up 6.9%, XLRE up 15.0%, XLU up 6.1%, XLV up 5.2% and XLY flat at 0.0%
Over 6 months XLB is up 25.6%, XLC up 23.2%, XLE up 56.3%, XLF up 39.9%, XLI up 25.1%, XLK up 20.5%, XLP up 6.4%, XLRE up 18.8%, XLU up 2.8%, XLV up 14.8% and XLY up 16.2%
In the past year XLB up 59.1%, XLC up 55.8%, XLE up 34.2%, XLF up 57.3%, XLI up 58.0%, XLK up 61.8%, XLP up 18.2%, XLRE up 24.1%, XLU 13.1%, XLV up 21.8% and XLY up 55.4%.
The relative performance of the sectors was 1 week XLRE best and XLY worst, 3 months XLF best and XLY worst, 6 months XLE best and XLU worst and 12 months XLK best and XLU worst.
The week was very light on economic news, but what there was was generally good.
Weekly unemployment numbers dropped by 39,000 to 547,000, the lowest level since March of last year. Expectations were for 617,000. To put these numbers in perspective, the value peaked at 6,150,000 in April 2020. The number in a healthy economy is generally around 225,000. Continuing claims were down by 34,000 to 3,670,000. The peak during the pandemic was 23,100,000.
Leading Economic Indicators were up by 1.3% in March compared with an expected 1.0%. February saw a 0.1% drop in January at 0.5% increase. All 10 components were positive suggesting a broad increase in economic momentum.
Existing home sales dropped by 3.7% month over month, the lowest since August 2020, but were up 12.3% year-over-year. The drop was explained by a supply shortage and the median house price was at a record 329,000. New home sales, a small percentage of total home sales, gross 20.7% over February, and were 66.8% higher than in March 2020.
IHS Markit reported that their services index rose from 60.4 263.1, the highest reading since 2009. Manufacturing also rose from 59.1 to 60.6.
A volatile week in the stock market with some initial gains wiped out by a sharp drop on reports that Pres. Biden is proposing a possible doubling of the capital gains tax on wealthy individuals. The strong economic later in the week allowed stocks to recover somewhat on Friday, although the major indices ended the week slightly down.
In general, economic news has been good so far this year has had an initial earnings reports. Monetary and fiscal policy are both supportive of the stock market. However, while the vaccine rollout is going faster than expected in the United States, there is growing concern over variance and a marked increase pieces and the rest of the world, especially Brazil and India.
Stock Wealth Safely this week
Stock Wealth Safely winners this week PFE 16 weeks after selection, INCY (6 weeks) and CB which made its 5% target just 3 weeks after being chosen.
LLY was the new Stock Wealth Safely selection.
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