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SWS WEEKLY SUMMARY - April 16, 2021



Markets

Another very good week with SP500 closing at 4185, up 1.4%, Dow up 1.2% to 34201 and NASDAQ up 1.1 to 14052.

The smaller companies did well with mid cap SP400 up 7.5% and small cap SP600 up 1.0%.

For the past 3 months, SP500 is up 11.1%, Dow up 11.0%, NASDAQ up 8.1%, SP400 up 18.5% and SP600 up 11.2%

Over the last 6 months, SP500 up 20.1%, Dow up 19.6%, NASDAQ up 20.4%, SP400 up 43.8% and SP600 up 45.9%

In past year SP500 is up 48.3%, Dow up 44.6%, NASDAQ up 64.1%, SP400 up 87.5% and SP600 up 94.5%

For the broad market indices, SP500 has been best over the past 3 months, and NASDAQ over the past 6 and 12 months. Based on market cap, the small cap SP400 did best over the past 3 months and SP600 over the past 6 and 12 months.

Sectors

For the SP sectors, the past week saw XLB (materials) up 3.4%, XLC (communications) down – 0.1%, XLE (energy) up 0.4%, XLF (finance) up 0.6%, XLI (industrial) up 0.6%, XLK (technology) up 1.1%, XLP (staples) up 1.3%, XLRE (real estate) up 2.7%, XLU (utilities) up 3.7%, XLV (health) up 3.0% and XLY (discretionary) up 2.3%

For 3 months XLB up 9.8%, XLC up 17.6%, XLE up 13.1%, XLF up 14.6%, XLI up 13.9%, XLK up 12.5%, XLP up 6.4%, XLRE up 14.1%, XLU up 6.7%, XLV up 3.9% and XLY up 8.6%

Over 6 months XLB is up 24.7%, XLC up 26.3%, XLE up 60.3%, XLF up 41.6%, XLI up 23.9%, XLK up 18.3%, XLP up 5.4%, XLRE up 14.7%, XLU up 5.0%, XLV up 12.6% and XLY up 17.7%

In the past year XLB up 68.8%, XLC up 60.0%, XLE up 47.1%, XLF up 60.9%, XLI up 64.7%, XLK up 63.2%, XLP up 17.7%, XLRE up 24.3%, XLU 15.5%, XLV up 21.5% and XLY up 62.2%.

The relative performance of the sectors was 1 week XLU best and XLC worst, 3 months XLC best and XLV worst, 6 months XLE best and XLU worst and 12 months XLB best and XLU worst.

Economy

Economic news was generally positive this week. Advance retail sales were up by 9.8%, the highest rise in 10 months. They were up 27.7% year on year for March. Industrial production rose by 2.7% in March following a 3.7% drop in February. It is still slightly below the level before the pandemic. Capacity utilization was up by 1.9% to 73.8%.

Housing starts and increase by 19.4%, the highest increase since June 2006. Housing starts were up by 37% year-over-year. Building permits were up by 2.7% compared with February and 30.2% above the value in March 2020.

Initial unemployment claims we will drop to 576,000, the lowest since early in the pandemic. The previous week her weight is so 769,000. Continuing unemployment claims were essentially stable at 3,730,000.

The consumer price index was up by 0.6% from February, and by 2.6% for the year ending in March. This was the biggest 12 month increase since August 2018. The core CPI, excluding food and energy, was up by 1.6% on an annual basis, compared to the February value of 1.7%.

Real hourly earnings were down by 0.8% from February to March, combination of 0.1% drop in wages and a 0.6% increase in CPI. For the year real hourly earnings are up 1.5%.

Other Factors

Another strong week for the stock market with both the Dow and SP 500 setting new record highs and NASDAQ only 0.3% below its February high. This represents for consecutive weeks of increased for the Dow and SP 500 and 3 straight weeks for NASDAQ.

The increase is thought to be a combination of the good economic news described above, the report from the Fed of increased economic activity and some good earnings reports, particularly from the financial sector.

Although there is evidence of increased pricing pressure, the yield on the 10 year Treasury note ended the week at 1.57%, down from 1.66% last week. This is the biggest drop in yield since June. It appears that the market is convinced that the Fed will not increase interest rates over the possibility of inflation.

Stock Wealth Safely this week

Stock Wealth Safely winners this week were PKI which reached its target 3 weeks after selection and BDX which rose by 5% 2 weeks after being selected.

Subscribe to learn the Stock Wealth Safely selections this week.

Stock Wealth Safely selects stocks that are ideal for conservative investors.

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