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SWS Daily Report - June 25, 2021


Overview

The markets continued to climb on Friday and ended their best week since February. This was a sharp reversal from the previous week which saw a drop related to concern over how the Fed would respond to inflation data. The SPX closed at another all time record high. The main boost seemed to be the prospect of a deal securing a new one trillion dollar infrastructure plan, which still needs to be passed by Congress. Stocks have now been climbing since their pandemic lows last April and May. Although the markets have fluctuated over the past few weeks, the VIX has been at the lowest level for the year and is now at pre-pandemic levels

Most sectors benefitted this week, especially energy which climbed along with the increase in oil prices. Financial and retail also did well, outpacing technology giants.


Economy

Personal income decreased 2.0% in May while disposable personal income dropped 2.3% and personal consumption expenditures (PCE) were essentially flat. The estimated change in personal income had been a 2.7% drop and the spending estimate was a 0.3% increase

The PCE price index rose 0.4% and, if energy and food are excluded, rose 0.5%. The estimated core PCE index change was 0.6%. Compared with one year ago, the PCE index has climbed 3.9% (April value was 3.6%) and the core PCE index is up 3.4% (April value was 3.1%). The year on year increase in core PCE is the largest since April 1992. The gain is in part related to the base effect, in which an unusually low value was found in May 2020 because of the pandemic. This base effect should subside over the next few months. The core PCE is the measurement primarily used by the Fed when assessing if it is meeting its 2% target.

The preliminary consumer sentiment index for June from the University of Michigan was 85.5compared with an estimated 86.6. The value for May was 82.9. The value for current economic conditions was 88.6 down from 89.4 and the index of consumer expectations rose from 78.8 to 83.5

The are no major economic data releases scheduled for June 28.​


Markets

The SP 500 is up by 0.33% to close at 4280.70. The index is up 2.74% over five days, up 1.82% over one month, up 7.70% over three months and up 42.26% over one year.

The trailing P/E is 37.26 compared with 27.21 one year ago and estimated future P/E 22.52. Dividend yield is currently 1.35 compared with 2.01 one year ago.

Leading stocks were NKE up 15.53%, KMX up 6.67%, OXY up 3.69%, LNC up 3.63% and UNM up 3.17%.

Trailing stocks were FDX down 3.63%, CZR down 2.20%, WAT down 1.97%, SNPS down 1.76% and AVGO down 1.67%.


The Dow Jones industrial Average was up 0.69% to close at 34433.84. The DOW is up 3.44% over five days, down 0.28% over one month, up 4.12% over three months and up 37.65% over one year.

The trailing P/E is 29.36 compared with 21.26 year ago and an estimated future P/E of 20.12. The current dividend yield is 1.82% compared with 2.62 one year ago.

Leading stocks were NKE up 15.53%, UNH up 1.52%, PG up 1.43%, WMT up 1.18% and TRV up 1.17%.

Trailing stocks were CAT down 1.38%, BA down 0.87%, CRM down 0.78%, MSFT down 0.63%, and MCD down 0.39%.


The NASDAQ composite is down 0.06% and closed at 14360.39. NASDAQ has been up 2.35% over five days, up 4.45% over one month, up 9.30% over 3 months and up 47.18% over one year.

Leading stocks were IKNX up 64.25%, FFHL up 34.12%, OSMT up 33.10%, ALF up 33.07% and CRCT up 25.53%.

Trailing stocks were GLBS down 26.53%, OMP down 15.61%, FEMY down 13.55%, BMEA down 12.33% and MOXC down 12.28%.


The MidCap SP400 rose by 0.90% to close at 2726.48. The SP400 has been up 4.39% for the past 5 days, down 0.04% for the past month, up 3.80% for the past 3 months and up 58.58% over the past year.

Leading stocks were DECK up 6.96%, CNXC up 4.87% and OLLI up 4.86%.

Trailing stocks were NJR down 3.02%, PDCO down 2.88% and CLF down 2.80%


The SmallCap SP600 was up 0.09% to close at 138.76. The SP600 is up 4.73% for the past 5 days, up 1.23% for the past month, up 4.32% for the past 3 months and up 76.08% over the past year.

Leading stocks were APOG up 12.21%, CHS up 10.17% and GMS up 6.98%.

Trailing stocks were CAMP down 11.73%, PUMP down 7.48% and FRGI down 7.25%.


The CBOE VIX dropped 2.19% and closed at 15.62. The VIX is down 24.54% over five days, down 6.80% over one month, down 17.18% over three months and down 55.02% over one year.


On the New York stock exchange 1755 stocks advanced and 1526 declined, while on Nasdaq 2363 advanced and 1937 declined.

There were 213 new 52 week highs and 6 new 52 week lows on NYSE with 208 new highs and 13 new lows on NASDAQ.


The 2 year Treasury note yield is 0.278% and 10 year is 1.528%. The 10 year yield was up 9.0% over five days, down 5.6% over one month, down 15.7% three months ago, and up 88.1% one year ago.


SP500 Sector Performance % change

Financials + 1.25

Utilities + 1.13

Consumer Staples + 0.80

Real Estate + 0.64

Energy + 0.47

Health Care + 0.46

Consumer Discretionary + 0.31

Industrials + 0.22

Communication Services + 0.09

Materials + 0.04

Information Technology - 0.15


Financials has been up 5.28% over five days, down 2.44% over one month, up 7.46% over three months and up 63.57% over one year.


Information Technology has been down 2.35% over five days, up 5.09% over one month, up 9.44% over three months and up 42.83% over one year.


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