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SWS Daily Market Update - September 1, 2021


Nasdaq led the markets again today climbing b 0.3% to a new record. The SPX and DOW were slightly down. The largest stocks (FANG index) did well, up 1.3%The market has slowly climbed over the summer, with any small drop being quickly reversed by investors buying on the dip. This has led to stocks being traded at very high valuations by historical standards which could lead to volatility if there is any sign of slowing in the growth of corporate profits, a tightening of easy money policy by the Fed, a reduction in government stimulus spending or, potentially worst of all, an increase in interest rates because of a rise in inflation.


The ISM Purchasing Managers Index for August climbed slightly to 59.9, above the estimate of 58.6 and the July value of 59.5. Any value above 50 indicates expansion in manufacturing, which represents about 12% of the economy. All six large manufacturing industries reported growth, despite ongoing problems with the supply of raw materials. New order growth also increased to 66.7, driven by demand to replenish inventories that were reduced in the first six months of the year.


The manufacturing report from HIS Markit PMI continued to show economic growth although the value for August was 61.1, close to the estimated 61.2 but down from 63.4 in July. The overall rate of growth has been slowing over the summer, mainly because of material shortages.

The ADP national employment report showed a growth of 374,000 jobs in August, above the July value of 326,000 but well below the estimated 600,000. Most gains were in leisure and hospitality. The more comprehensive Labor Department report will be released on Friday.

Construction spending in July rose by 0.3%, slightly above the estimate of 0.2%, after being unchanged in June. Spending is up 9.0% year on year. Private construction projects were up 0.3%, driven by increased residential 0.5% (single family was up 0.9%) while non-residential construction dropped 0.2%. Public construction was up 0.7% led by state and local government spending.


Economic news for September 2

Initial weekly unemployment claims for August 28

Continuing weekly unemployment claims for August 21

Productivity and unit labor costs for July (revision)

Trade balance for July​


Markets

The SP 500 is up by 0.03% to close at 4524.09. The index is up 0.62% over five days, up 2.76% over one month, up 7.51% over three months and up 26.344% over one year.

The trailing P/E is 31.26 compared to 36.19 one year ago and estimated future P/E 22.26. Dividend yield is currently 1.31 compared with 1.75 one year ago.

Leading stocks were PVH up 15.07%, KSU up 3.84%, MRNA up 3.52%, BF-B up 3.42% and EQX up 3.01%.

Trailing stocks were ABBV down 7.05%, DXC down 5.07%, WFC down 4.92%, DVN down 4.43% and MRO down 4.17%.


The Dow Jones industrial Average is down by 0.14% to close at 35312.53. The DOW is down 0.26% over five days, up 1.49% over one month, up 2.06% over three months and up 21.35% over one year.

The trailing P/E is 24.00 compared with 28.57 year ago and an estimated future P/E of 19.26. The current dividend yield is 1.80% compared with 2.11 one year ago.

Leading stocks were DIS up 1.20%, CRM up 1.15%, PG up 1.02%, KO up 0.67% and AAPL down 0.45%.

Trailing stocks were CAT down 1.38%, CVX down 1.10%, AMGN down 0.97%, AXP down 0.92%, and HON down 0.91%.


The NASDAQ composite is up by 0.33% and closed at 15309.38. NASDAQ is up 1.78% over five days, up 3.58% over one month, up 11.29% over 3 months and up 26.98% over one year.

Leading stocks were SQBG up 53.22%, METX up 36.84%, AMBA up 27.41%, ATER up 24.16% and ABVC up 23.79%.

Trailing stocks were SPRT down 23.15%, RNA down 19.09%, CREG down 16.16%, CENH down 14.57%, and GSMG down 13.80%.


The MidCap SP400 is up by 0.26% to close at 2760.22. The SP400 is up 0.69% for the past 5 days, up 2.94% for the past month, up 1.17% for the past 3 months and up 40.37% over the past year.

Leading stocks were up RUN 6.21%, LGND up 5.62% and QDEL up 5.11%.

Trailing stocks were DY down 5.31%, CNK down 4.60% and HFC down 3.53%


The SmallCap SP600 is up by 0.34% to close at 1371.33. The SP600 is up 1.44% for the past 5 days, up 3.75% for the past month, down 1.52% for the past 3 months and up 49.02% over the past year.

Leading stocks were SLQT up 14.03%, RLGY up 6.89% and CONN up 6.34%.

Trailing stocks were VRA down 9.42%, ENDP down 8.30% and RGS down 7.38%.


The CBOE VIX is down 2.25% and closed at 16.11. The VIX is down 4.05% over five days, down 10.35% over one month, down 7.84% over three months and down 39.37% over one year.


On the New York stock exchange 2054 stocks advanced and 1260 declined, while on Nasdaq 2577 advanced and 1831 declined.

There were 186 new 52 week highs and 19 new 52 week lows on NYSE with 194 new highs and 52 new lows on NASDAQ.


The 2 year Treasury note yield is 0.211% and 10 year is 1.300%. The 10 year yield is down 5.7% over five days, up 7.6% over one month, down 32.5% three months ago, and up 66.1% one year ago.


SP500 Sector Performance % change

Real Estate +1.69

Utilities +1.30

Communication Services +0.53

Consumer Staples +0.50

Information Technology +0.03

Health Care +0.02

Consumer Discretionary -0.03

Materials -0.28

Industrials -0.36

Financials -0.62

Energy -1.51


Real Estate has been up 4.31% over five days, up 3.97% over one month, up 10.34% over three months and up 35.09% over one year.

Energy has been down 1.62% over five days, down 5.39% over one month, down 11.93% over three months and up 35.12% over one year.



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