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SWS Daily Market Update - July 23, 2021

Updated: Jul 26




Overview

After starting with a sell-off on Monday, stocks surged the rest of the week and reached records by Friday. The DOW closed above 35,000 for the first time ever. The SPX is now up 97% from its lows at the worst of the pandemic and closed at a record high for the 40th time this year. The recovery this week seems to be driven by extremely good second quarter profits, with Bloomberg reporting that 87% of 110 SP 500 companies reporting so far have exceeded analyst estimates. Investors appear to believe that this growth will continue for the second half of the year, justifying the very high stock valuations. At present they are ignoring the threats posed by the rapid spread of the delta COVID variant and looming inflation. The 10 year Treasury note fell to 1.181% on Monday and finished Friday at 1.286%. Oil prices were up 0.7% for the week.


Economy

The IHS Markit Purchasing Manufacturer’s index released on Friday showed a drop in July to 59.7, from 63.7 in June. This represents a 4 month low. The Manufacturing PMI rose to a record 63.1 from 62.1 and the Manufacturing Output climbed to a 2 month high of 59.5 from the 58.9 in June. Services, however, declined to a 5 month low of 59.8 from the June value of 64.6.


Markets

The SP 500 is up by 1.01% to close at 4411.79. The index is up 1.96% over five days, up 3.06% over one month, up 5.54% over three months and up 37.20% over one year.

The trailing P/E is 35.46 compared with 30.59 one year ago and estimated future P/E 22.41. Dividend yield is currently 1.33 compared with 1.90 one year ago.

Leading stocks were MRNA up 7.84%, RHI up 7.36%, FB up 5.30%, DHI up 4.36% and GOOGL up 3.58%.

Trailing stocks were INTL down 5.29%, VRSN down 4.71%, OGN down 3.62%, WYNN down 3.57% and ORCL down 3.31%.


The Dow Jones industrial Average is up by 0.68% to close at 35061.55. The DOW is up 1.08% over five days, up 1.82% over one month, up 2.99% over three months and up 32.46% over one year.

The trailing P/E is 25.95 compared with 23.23 year ago and an estimated future P/E of 19.65. The current dividend yield is 1.80% compared with 2.46 one year ago.

Leading stocks were V up 2.00%, HD up 1.89%, MCD up 1.80%, NKE up 1.64% and PG up 1.44%.

Trailing stocks were INTL down 5.29%, HON down 1.26%, DOW down 0.61%, JPM down 0.19%, and VZ down 0.93%.


The NASDAQ composite is up by 1.04% and closed at 14836.99. NASDAQ is up 2.84% over five days, up 3.32% over one month, up 5.85% over 3 months and up 43.17% over one year.

Leading stocks were NAOV up 248.14%, NRXP up 50.58%, SCKT up 43.97%, XBIO up 35.48% and MDGS up 27.15%.

Trailing stocks were SNTG down 43.72%, REDU down 40.53%, YQ down 38.70%, MOXC down 37.04%, and IPA down 35.40%.


The MidCap SP400 is up by 0.87% to close at 2672.74. The SP400 is up 2.13% for the past 5 days, down 1.97% for the past month, down 2.66% for the past 3 months and up 44.48% over the past year.

Leading stocks were SKX up 9.96%, TPH up 7.65% and SXT up 6.82%.

Trailing stocks were SAM down 7.45%, RUN down 6.03% and SEDG down 5.31%


The SmallCap SP600 is up by 0.72% to close at 1318.56. The SP600 is up 1.62% for the past 5 days, down 5.05% for the past month, down 2.33% for the past 3 months and up 54.83% over the past year.

Leading stocks were AMEH up 15.79%, HZO up 6.63% and ETH up 6.22%.

Trailing stocks were BOOM down 11.30%, RGNX down 6.24% and EIG down 5.71%.


The CBOE VIX dropped by 2.77% and closed at 17.20. The VIX is down 6.78% over five days, up 10.12% over one month, down 0.75% over three months and down 33.44% over one year.


On the New York stock exchange 2051 stocks advanced and 1245 declined, while on Nasdaq 2194 advanced and 2138 declined.

There were 149 new 52 week highs and 51 new 52 week lows on NYSE with 142 new highs and 128 new lows on NASDAQ.


The 2 year Treasury note yield is 0.206% and 10 year is 1.276%. The 10 year yield is down 1.8% over five days, down 25.2% over one month, down 28.8% three months ago, and up 68.5% one year ago.


SP500 Sector Performance % change

Communication Services +2.65

Utilities +1.28

Consumer Staples +1.22

Health Care +1.18

Information Technology +0.99

Real Estate +0.88

Consumer Discretionary +0.86

Materials +0.68

Industrials +0.42

Financials +0.13

Energy -0.43


Communication Services has been up 3.24% over five days, up 4.47% over one month, up 10.23% over three months and up 46.45% over one year.

Energy has been down 0.39% over five days, down 12.17% over one month, up 2.35% over three months and up 29.23% over one year.


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