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SWS Daily Market Update - July 16, 2021


Overview

Markets were down Friday with the three major indices closing lower for the week, after climbing for the past three weeks. Losses were widespread


with energy, materials and some tech stocks experiencing notable declines. Small cap stocks also did poorly with the Russell 2000 down 5.1% on the week. It seems that for this week anyway, worries about inflation and rising COVID infections were more powerful than the strong earnings reports. Oil dropped over fears of increased supply from OPEC and the yield on the 10 year Treasury note fell further, having now dropped for 3 consecutive weeks.


Economy

Retail sales were up 0.6% in June, above expectations which called for a 0.4% drop, following a decline in May. The value was 18% ABOVE June 2020. Total sales April-June were 31.5% higher than one year ago. Sales were strong for products that can be used outside the home – restaurants, clothing and accessories stores – while areas that were strong earlier in the year when lockdowns were in place, such as furniture and building materials stores dropped.

Business inventories increased 0.5% in May after climbing 0.1% in April. The increase was in line with expectations. The increase year over year was 4.5%. Retail inventories decreased 0.8% in May after dropping 1.7% in April. Much of the drop was in motor vehicles which are impacted by the semiconductor shortage. If autos are excluded, retail inventories were up 0.9% in May. Wholesale inventories dropped 0.3% in May after increasing 0.6% in April.


The University of Michigan’s preliminary sentiment index dropped to 80.5 in July from 85.5 in June. The estimate was for an increase to 86.5. Current economic conditions declined from 88.6 to 84.5 while consumer expectations were 78.4 compared with 83.5. Consumers are worried about high prices on homes, automobiles and durable goods as well as concerns about inflation.


Markets

The SP 500 dropped by 0.75% to close at 4327.16. The index is down 0.97% over five days, up 3.86% over one month, up 3.39% over three months and up 34.19% over one year.

The trailing P/E is 36.60 compared with 29.34 one year ago and estimated future P/E 22.57. Dividend yield is currently 1.35 compared with 1.90 one year ago.

Leading stocks were CTAS up 4.62%, TFX up 3.75%, STT up 2.89%, CLX up 2.62% and ABMD up 2.51%.

Trailing stocks were NCLH down 5.36%, CZR down 4.84%, LYB down 4.81%, OXY down 4.74% and GPS down 4.71%.




The Dow Jones industrial Average dropped by 0.86% to close at 34687.85. The DOW is down 0.52% over five days, up 4.20% over one month, up 1.42% over three months and up 30.05% over one year.

The trailing P/E is 26.37 compared with 22.84 year ago and an estimated future P/E of 19.80. The current dividend yield is 1.81% compared with 2.44 one year ago.

Leading stocks were PG up 0.97%, AMGN up 0.54%, TRV up 0.52%, CRM up 0.36% and MRK up 0.15%.

Trailing stocks were DOW down 3.07%, CVX down 2.65%, DIS down 2.63%, GS down 2.29%, and JPM down 2.28%.




The NASDAQ composite dropped by 0.80% and closed at 14427.24. NASDAQ dropped 1.87% over five days, up 2.83% over one month, up 2.67% over 3 months and up 37.36% over one year.

Leading stocks were SXTC up 41.33%, RCAT up 41.15%, GXGX up 27.18%, GLG up 24.40% and AEHR up 21.00%.

Trailing stocks were BTB down 48.50%, FGEN down 42.23%, AOUT down 21.96%, NEPT down 21.69%, and ATOS down 19.93%.



The MidCap SP400 dropped by 1.19% to close at 2616.96. The SP400 is down 3.31% for the past 5 days, up 0.19% for the past month, down 3.83% for the past 3 months and up 42.49% over the past year.

Leading stocks were EBS up 3.31%, QDEL up 7.15% and TECH up 2.04%.

Trailing stocks were CLF down 7.82%, TDC down 6.43% and CC down 5.77%


The SmallCap SP600 dropped by 1.42% to close at 1297.56. The SP600 is down 4.56% for the past 5 days, down 2.49% for the past month, down 3.74% for the past 3 months and up 53.16% over the past year.

Leading stocks were ZYXI up 10.66%, CRMT up 7.42% and SENEA up 5.02%.

Trailing stocks were NBRWF down 11.55%, CPE down 9.81% and PBF down 9.73%.


The CBOE VIX is up by 8.47% and closed at 18.45. The VIX is up 14.03%


over five days, down 10.87% over one month, up 13.54% over three months and down 28.15% over one year.


On the New York stock exchange 1000 stocks advanced and 2327 declined, while on Nasdaq 1329 advanced and 3016 declined.

There were 109 new 52 week highs and 41 new 52 week lows on NYSE with 71 new highs and 122 new lows on NASDAQ.

The 2 year Treasury note yield is 0.238% and 10 year is 1.294%. The 10 year yield is down 6.6% over five days, down 14.4% over one month, down 29.0% three months ago, and up 66.0% one year ago.




SP500 Sector Performance % change

Utilities +0.99

Health Care +0.22

Consumer Staples +0.15

Real Estate +0.10

Communication Services -0.57

Industrials -0.86

Information Technology -0.97

Consumer Discretionary -1.25

Financials -1.34

Materials -1.53

Energy -2.76




Utilities has been up 2.55% over five days, up 4.18% over one month, down 1.35% over three months and up 10.08% over one year.

Energy has been down 7.72% over five days, down 5.95% over one month, up 0.93% over three months and up 32.46% over one year.


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