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SWS Daily Market Update - July 15, 2021

Overview

Stocks were fairly quiet today with only small changes in the major indices: SPX down 0.3%, Nasdaq down 0.7% and Dow up 0.2%. Fed Chairman Powell again stated that he did not intend to slow down the asset purchases that are providing monetary support for the economy, and that he still believes that the higher than expected inflation will be transient. It is now unlikely that the Fed will make any further statements about changing its monetary policy until the end of August at the soonest. While the indices remain around all time highs, further price increases are threatened by worries over inflation, in global COVID infections and the belief that the growth in corporate earnings may have peaked. The 10 year Treasury note also dropped to 1.297%.


Economy

The weekly initial unemployment claims again dropped to a new pandemic low of 360,000 from 386,000 the previous week. The four week moving average also reached a new low at 383,000. The number remains above the pre-pandemic average of 218,000.

Continuing unemployment claims, an estimate of the people receiving benefits, dropped by 126,000 to 3.24 million, another low in the pandemic era.


Industrial production rose by 0.4% in June compared with May. Manufacturing, the biggest component of industrial production, dropped by 0.1% because of a decrease in motor vehicle production attributed to the shortage of semiconductors. For the first 6 months of 2021, factory output is up just 1.1% which is below the pre-pandemic rate of growth. Capacity utilization is at 75.5% which is similar to levels in 2019.


Markets

The SP 500 dropped by 0.33% to close at 4360.03. The index is up 0.91% over five days, up 3.27% over one month, up 4.55% over three months and up 35.59% over one year.

The trailing P/E is 37.70 compared with 27.95 one year ago and estimated future P/E 22.72. Dividend yield is currently 1.33 compared with 1.94 one year ago.

Leading stocks were AIG up 3.58%, USB up 3.21%, TFC up 2.63%, ES up 2.46% and CAG up 2.33%.

Trailing stocks were TFX down 9.84%, BIIB down 6.79%, NXPI down 4.49%, WDC down 4.43% and NVDA down 4.41%.


The Dow Jones industrial Average is up by 0.15% to close at 34987.02. The DOW is up 1.64% over five days, up 3.44% over one month, up 2.79% over three months and up 30.87% over one year.

The trailing P/E is 26.60 compared with 22.80 year ago and an estimated future P/E of 20.16. The current dividend yield is 1.79% compared with 2.43 one year ago.

Leading stocks were HON up 2.21%, UNH up 1.28%, HD up 1.09%, V up 1.04% and PG up 0.86%.

Trailing stocks were CRM down 2.00%, WBA down 1.34%, INTL down 1.26%, JNJ down 1.20%, and CSCO down 0.81%.


The NASDAQ composite dropped by 0.70% and closed at 14543.13. NASDAQ dropped 0.11% over five days, up 2.70% over one month, up 3.59% over 3 months and up 38.85% over one year.

Leading stocks were YVR up 65.82%, CIDM up 37.96%, AACG up 28.52%, VERB up 28.51% and MOXC up 15.42%.

Trailing stocks were IMV down 28.85%, MRIN down 27.07%, VJET down 26.08%, DOGZ down 24.68%, and SMID down 24.32%.


The MidCap SP400 dropped by 0.30% to close at 2648.54. The SP400 is at 0.00% for the past 5 days, down 0.54% for the past month, down 1.92% for the past 3 months and up 44.84% over the past year.

Leading stocks were EBS up 3.14%, IDA up 2.91% and HE up 2.81%.

Trailing stocks were WWE down 6.98%, AEO down 5.50% and SGMS down 5.44%


The SmallCap SP600 dropped by 0.53% to close at 1316.23. The SP600 is down 0.62% for the past 5 days, down 3.51% for the past month, down 2.06% for the past 3 months and up 55.34% over the past year.

Leading stocks were ARLO up 7.04%, GPRE up 6.49% and ZYXI up 6.45%.

Trailing stocks were PVAC down 9.82%, AMEH down 9.77% and CSII down 8.19%.


The CBOE VIX is up by 4.16% and closed at 17.01. The VIX is down 10.47% over five days, down 4.17% over one month, up 2.66% over three months and down 39.25% over one year.


On the New York stock exchange 1279 stocks advanced and 2008 declined, while on Nasdaq 1675 advanced and 2651 declined.


There were 87 new 52 week highs and 39 new 52 week lows on NYSE with 50 new highs and 182 new lows on NASDAQ.

The 2 year Treasury note yield is 0.229% and 10 year is 1.299%. The 10 year yield is up 0.1% over five days, down 21.0% over one month, down 27.8% three months ago, and up 68.0% one year ago.


SP500 Sector Performance % change

Utilities +1.20

Consumer Staples +0.42

Financials +0.38

Industrials +0.23

Real Estate +0.14

Materials +0.04

Health Care -0.26

Communication Services -0.54

Consumer Discretionary -0.64

Information Technology -0.84

Energy -1.41

Utilities has been up 1.71% over five days, up 0.45% over one month, down 1.53% over three months and up 11.49% over one year.

Energy has been down 3.19% over five days, down 6.10% over one month, up 2.87% over three months and up 34.16% over one year.


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