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SWS Daily Market Update - July 14, 2021



Overview

The Dow and SPX were up slightly while the Nasdaq dropped 0.2% today in a volatile day. Investors attention appeared to focus on the marked increase in the CPI on Tuesday and PPI Wednesday that were balance by statements by the Fed Chairman that the economy still had a ways to go before reaching the employment goals of the Fed. He believes that inflation will drop as the bottlenecks in supply caused by the pandemic subside. The 10 year Treasury note declined to 1.356% from 1.415%. The dollar also declined.


Economic

The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the Producer Price Index (PPI) increased by 1.0% in June after rising 0.8% in May and 0.6% in April. The jump was higher than the forecast 0.6% increase. For the 12 month period ending in June, the increase was 7.3%, the largest since data started to be collected in 2010. Prices were up for both final demand services (up 0.8%) and goods (up 1.2%).


The PPI reflects the prices that companies get for their goods while the CPI is what consumers pay at the cash register. Although both the CPI and PPI have increased dramatically, the Fed continues to believe that these increases will be transitory and will disappear once the economy has fully recovered from the pandemic created slowdown.


The Beige Book, a survey of the 12 regional banks of the Federal Reserve system, found that the economy demonstrated moderate to robust growth between late May and early July. Strong sectors included manufacturing, travel and transportation. However, shortages persisted in labor, materials and inventories of consumer goods. Fed Chairman Powell told Congress today that the economy was recovering strongly but the labor market still has a long way to go. He also stated that long-term inflation expectations were in a range that is consistent with the Fed’s inflation goal.


Markets

The SP 500 is up by 0.12% to close at 4374.30. The index is up 0.37% over five days, up 3.57% over one month, up 6.05% over three months and up 35.57% over one year.

The trailing P/E is 37.70 compared with 27.95 one year ago and estimated future P/E 22.72. Dividend yield is currently 1.33 compared with 1.94 one year ago.

Leading stocks were WFC up 3.98%, PRGO up 3.11%, AAL up 3.00%, NWL up 2.42% and AAPL up 2.41%.

Trailing stocks were OXY down 7.48%, ENPH down 7.21%, FANG down 6.06%, DVN down 5.76% and APA down 5.60%.


The Dow Jones industrial Average is up by 0.13% to close at 34933.23. The DOW is up 0.72% over five days, up 2.64% over one month, up 3.56% over three months and up 30.01% over one year.

The trailing P/E is 28.97 compared with 23.26 year ago and an estimated future P/E of 20.16. The current dividend yield is 1.80% compared with 2.44 one year ago.

Leading stocks were AAPL up 2.41%, KO up 2.25%, HON up 1.65%, MMM up 1.62% and V up 1.50%.

Trailing stocks were CVX down 1.89%, CAT down 1.65%, BA down 1.64%, WBA down 0.93%, and UNH down 0.91%.


The NASDAQ composite dropped by 0.22% and closed at 14644.95. NASDAQ dropped 0.41% over five days, up 4.31% over one month, up 5.68% over 3 months and up 38.81% over one year.

Leading stocks were SGOC up 37.64%, DTSS up 35.84%, BON up 33.60%, VRPX up 30.62% and WHLM up 24.95%.

Trailing stocks were ALNA down 35.04%, AHPI down 31.13%, AEHL down 25.75%, AUUD down 23.75%, and CETX down 23.08%.


The MidCap SP400 dropped by 0.57% to close at 2656.43. The SP400 is down 1.32% for the past 5 days, down 4.77% for the past month, down 1.20% for the past 3 months and up 55.12% over the past year.

Leading stocks were CMP up 13.18%, JEF up 5.39% and EPR up 3.77%.

Trailing stocks were RUN down 8.56%, LII down 7.66% and SEDG down 7.50%


The SmallCap SP600 dropped by 1.17% to close at 1323.29. The SP600 is down 0.79% for the past 5 days, down 3.70% for the past month, up 0.92% for the past 3 months and up 62.70% over the past year.

Leading stocks were AMEH up 9.47%, LPG up 4.24% and CEIX up 2.83%.

Trailing stocks were GKOS down 21.41%, PBF down 10.96% and FLGT down 9.71%.


The CBOE VIX is down by 4.61% and closed at 16.33. The VIX is up 0.80% over five days, down 10.03% over one month, down 3.88% over three months and down 41.17% over one year.


On the New York stock exchange 1395 stocks advanced and 1889 declined, while on Nasdaq 1383 advanced and 2959 declined.

There were 114 new 52 week highs and 36 new 52 week lows on NYSE with 95 new highs and 129 new lows on NASDAQ.

The 2 year Treasury note yield is 0.229% and 10 year is 1.345%. The 10 year yield is up 2.6% over five days, down 23.5% over one month, down 28.7% three months ago, and up 71.3% one year ago.


SP500 Sector Performance % change

Consumer Staples +0.92

Real Estate +0.89

Utilities +0.83

Information Technology +0.73

Communication Services +0.07

Industrials -0.04

Consumer Discretionary -0.17

Materials -0.19

Health Care -0.20

Financials -0.49

Energy -2.49


Consumer Staples has been up 0.95% over five days, up 1.99% over one month, up 3.20% over three months and up 16.31% over one year.

Energy has been down 2.25% over five days, down 8.08% over one month, up 3.42% over three months and up 35.38% over one year.


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