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SWS Daily Market Update - July 12, 2021


Overview

Stocks again reached record highs today while awaiting the start of second quarter earnings reports due out this week, led by the major banks. Gains occurred in 9 or 11 SPX sectors with Finance doing the best. Only energy and consumer staples dropped. All three indices set all time high records with their closing prices today.


Investors seem to expect that the second quarter will see strong profits due to economic growth in the second quarter. It seems likely that the second quarter will represent the peak of earnings growth in the recovery from the pandemic. The consensus estimate is that they will be 64% higher than last year, although that number is artificially low because of the pandemic. However, it is possible that they may even be higher than in the second quarter of 2019 before the pandemic. Strong corporate earnings are necessary to maintain stock prices at such high valuations. Currently the SPX is trading at a future P/E of around 22, compared with an average future P/E of 18 over the past 5 years.


Markets

The SP 500 is up by 0.35% to close at 4384.63. The index is up 0.74% over five days, up 3.04% over one month, up 6.22% over three months and up 16.73% over one year.

The trailing P/E is 37.70 compared with 27.95 one year ago and estimated future P/E 22.72. Dividend yield is currently 1.33 compared with 1.94 one year ago.

Leading stocks were ALB up 6.83%, TSLA up 4.38%, LB up 4.16%, DIS up 4.15% and DFS up 3.42%.

Trailing stocks were HPQ down 2.76%, BIIB down 2.55%, FFIV down 2.54%, CHTR down 2.26% and AKAM down 1.99%.


The Dow Jones industrial Average is up by 0.36% to close at 34996.18. The DOW is up 0.60% over five days, down 1.75% over one month, up 3.71% over three months and up 34.16% over one year.

The trailing P/E is 28.96 compared with 22.16 year ago and an estimated future P/E of 20.16. The current dividend yield is 1.81% compared with 2.50 one year ago.

Leading stocks were DIS up 4.15%, GS0 up 2.35%, JPM up 1.43%, INTL up 1.32% and AXP up 0.97%.

Trailing stocks were CSCO down 0.95%, CRM down 0.88%, MRK up 0.56%, BA up 0.54%, and MMM up 0.51%.


The NASDAQ composite is up by 0.21% and closed at 14733.24. NASDAQ has been up 0.64% over five days, up 3.94% over one month, up 6.38% over 3 months and up 41.79% over one year.

Leading stocks were MDIA up 311.62%, STFC up 190.96%, SGOC up 104.29%, WORX up 59.28% and TPST up 54.37%.

Trailing stocks were TBLT down 32.86%, UTSI down 19.39%, NEGG down 18.63%, NVFY down 18.22%, and CARV down 18.11%.


The MidCap SP400 is up by 0.26% to close at 2713.39. The SP400 is up 0.14% for the past 5 days, down 0.48% for the past month, up 1.27% for the past 3 months and up 54.66% over the past year.

Leading stocks were IAA up 4.17%, RUN up 3.78% and JHG up 3.44%.

Trailing stocks were CNK down 6.64%, INGR down 3.26% and CDAY down 3.08%


The SmallCap SP600 is up by 0.41% to close at 1365.19. The SP600 is down 0.33% for the past 5 days, down 1.60% for the past month, up 2.23% for the past 3 months and up 68.65% over the past year.

Leading stocks were AMEH up 6.70%, MPAA up 6.61% and LTHM up 6.05%.

Trailing stocks were DDD down 9.62%, MSTR down 6.36% and UNFI down 4.99%.


The CBOE VIX dropped 0.06% and closed at 16.17. The VIX is up 7.30% over five days, down 1.34% over one month, down 4.38% over three months and down 49.77% over one year.


On the New York stock exchange 1903 stocks advanced and 1388 declined, while on Nasdaq 2271 advanced and 2058 declined.

There were 209 new 52 week highs and 14 new 52 week lows on NYSE with 154 new highs and 31 new lows on NASDAQ.


The 2 year Treasury note yield is 0.233% and 10 year is 1.365%. The 10 year yield was down 7.2% over five days, down 13.3% over one month, down 30.4% three months ago, and up 74.6% one year ago.


SP500 Sector Performance % change

Financials +0.96

Communication Services +0.90

Real Estate +0.86

Consumer Discretionary +0.59

Utilities +0.28

Materials +0.26

Health Care +0.18

Industrials +0.11

Information Technology +0.04

Energy -0.11

Consumer Staples -0.21

Financials has been down 0.32% over five days, down 0.01% over one month, up 5.05% over three months and up 57.47% over one year.

Consumer Staples has been up 0.21% over five days, down 0.43% over one month, up 1.72% over three months and up 17.07% over one year.


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