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SWS Daily Market Update - August 26, 2021

Updated: Aug 27




Stocks pulled back after several straight days of gains with the SPX and Nasdaq each dropping 0.6% and the Dow 0.5%. There was no strong signal for the pullback which may have resulted from profit-taking and apprehension about the results of the Jackson Hole Symposium that will be released tomorrow. It is not clear if the Fed will take any steps towards reducing asset purchases in the current economic environment, although some hawkish members of the committee are saying that it should. The discouraging news coming our of Afghanistan may also have dampened spirits.


Initial unemployment claims for the week of August 21 were 353,000, similar to the estimated 350,000 but slightly above the 348,00 number last week. The four week moving average dropped 11,500 to 366,500.


Continuing claims were down 3,000 from the previous week to 2.86 million compared to the expected 2.77 million. The four week moving average dropped to 2.9 million. The number of people receiving benefits from all government programs rose 182,000 to 12 million, compared to 27.5 million one year ago.


The second quarter GDP was revised up to 6.6%, still below the estimate of 6.7%. The initial estimate had been 6.5.


Corporate profits rose by 9.2% in the second quarter to a record $2.8 trillion. The first quarter increase was 5.1%. Profits were up 69.3% from last year although this in part was from a low baseline during the pandemic. The profit margin in the economy as a whole increased 0.7% to 12.3%, the highest since 2014 while an estimate for SP500 profits climbed by 12.8% compared with 9.4% in the first quarter.


Economic news for August 27

Personal income July: estimate 0.3%, previous 0.1%

Consumer spending July: estimate 0.3%, previous 1.0%

Core PCE price index July: estimate 0.3%, previous 0.4%

University of Michigan consumer sentiment index August: estimate 71.0, previous 70.2

Trade in goods July: previous - $91.2 billion​

Markets

The SP 500 is down by 0.58% to close at 4470.00. The index is up 1.46% over five days, up 1.15% over one month, up 6.41% over three months and up 28.28% over one year.

The trailing P/E is 31.20 compared to 35.35 one year ago and estimated future P/E 21.97. Dividend yield is currently 1.34 compared with 1.79 one year ago.

Leading stocks were ETSY up 5.10%, NTAP up 4.72%, MCHP up 2.96%, CRM up 2.66% and ADI up 2.48%.

Trailing stocks were DLTR down 12.08%, ADSK down 9.37%, WDC down 4.47%, PVH down 4.23% and GPS down 4.11%.


The Dow Jones industrial Average is down by 0.54% to close at 35213.12. The DOW is up 0.91% over five days, up 0.37% over one month, up 2.17% over three months and up 23.59% over one year.

The trailing P/E is 23.82 compared with 28.30 year ago and an estimated future P/E of 19.04. The current dividend yield is 1.78% compared with 2.27 one year ago.

Leading stocks were CRM up 2.66%, JPM up 0.52%, MMM up 0.50%, HON up 0.10% and AMGN down 0.05%.

Trailing stocks were BA down 2.05%, NKE down 1.72%, WBA down 1.66%, CAT down 1.64%, and TRV down 1.61%.


The NASDAQ composite is down by 0.64% and closed at 14945.81. NASDAQ is up 2.78% over five days, up 1.13% over one month, up 8.81% over 3 months and up 28.56% over one year.

Leading stocks were GSMG up 50.97%, SPRT up 41.12%, SGOC up 27.50%, GAMB up 23.73% and ASND up 21.05%.

Trailing stocks were RGC down 34.17%, ADTX down 29.93%, HEPS down 25.37%, SNTG down 25.37%, and VERA down 16.18%.


The MidCap SP400 is down by 0.90% to close at 2716.69. The SP400 is up 2.72% for the past 5 days, up 0.38% for the past month, down 0.34% for the past 3 months and up 40.31% over the past year.

Leading stocks were COTY up 14.70%, WSM up 9.34% and DKS up 4.15%.

Trailing stocks were HAIN down 9.10%, JWN down 8.45% and OLLI down 6.58%


The SmallCap SP600 is down by 1.18% to close at 1335.85. The SP600 is up 2.72% for the past 5 days, down 0.65% for the past month, down 2.93% for the past 3 months and up 47.53% over the past year.

Leading stocks were MOV up 7.11%, PLAB up 4.57% and TALO up 4.35%.

Trailing stocks were SLQT down 45.02%, RGS own 14.71% and ANF down 10.35%.


The CBOE VIX is up 12.21% and closed at 18.84. The VIX is down 13.06% over five days, up 6.44% over one month, up 12.54% over three months and down 23.01% over one year.


On the New York stock exchange 838 stocks advanced and 2454 declined, while on Nasdaq 1516 advanced and 2829 declined.

There were 83 new 52 week highs and 42 new 52 week lows on NYSE with 109 new highs and 66 new lows on NASDAQ.


The 2 year Treasury note yield is 0.238% and 10 year is 1.352%. The 10 year yield is up 10.7% over five days, up 8.1% over one month, down 25.2% three months ago, and up 59.8% one year ago.


SP500 Sector Performance % change

Real Estate -0.10

Utilities -0.35

Health Care -0.40

Industrials -0.43

Consumer Staples -0.50

Financials -0.54

Information Technology -0.62

Materials -0.68

Communication Services -0.73

Consumer Discretionary -0.73

Energy -1.51


Real Estate has been down 0.75% over five days, up 0.36% over one month, up 8.17% over three months and up 29.03% over one year.

Energy has been up 4.89% over five days, down 5.24% over one month, down 7.64% over three months and up 34.48% over one year.



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