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SWS Daily Market Update - Aug 5, 2021


Overview

The mood today shifted again as strong corporate earnings pushed the SPX and Nasdaq 100 to new records. The DOW and Nasdaq composite also rose. Increases occurred in nine of the eleven SP sectors.


With the market already up 17% for the year, further growth is likely to require continued strong company performance, continued accommodation by the Fed, ongoing fiscal stimulus and prevention of COVID from again forcing significant lockdowns.


Initial unemployment claims, considered to be a measure of layoffs, dropped slightly this week by 14,000 to 385,000. This was similar to the 383,000 forecast. The four week moving average is 394,000. The decline in weekly unemployment has levelled off and has ranged between 368,000 to 424,000 for the past two months, above the 2019 pre-pandemic weekly average of 218,000. Continuing claims also dropped to 2.93 million, a new low in the pandemic era. Benefits for all programs dropped by 181,000 to 13 million.


The US trade deficit grew by 6.7% in May to a record 75.7 billion. The previous record was set in March at 75 billion. The deficit was typically around 45 billion in the years prior to the pandemic. Spending in the recovering economy has increased demand for imports, while exports only increased by 0.6%.


Economic news for August 6

Nonfarm payrolls for July, Estimate 845,000 jobs, previous 850,000

Unemployment rate for July, estimate 5.7%, previous 5.9%

Average hourly earnings for July, estimate 0.3%, previous 0.3%

Wholesale inventories for June, estimate 0.8%, previous 1.3%

Consumer credit for June, estimate 24 billion, previous 35 billion.​


Markets

The SP 500 is up by 0.60% to close at 4429.10. The index is up 0.23% over five days, up 2.51% over one month, up 5.41% over three months and up 32.25% over one year.

The trailing P/E is 33.75 compared with 30.59 one year ago and estimated future P/E 22.52. Dividend yield is currently 1.31 compared with 1.90 one year ago.

Leading stocks were PENN up 9.09%, WYNN up 8.33%, AAL up 7.51%, RCL up 7.50% and LNC up 7.37%.

Trailing stocks were CAH down 14.26%, CI down 10.92%, ETSY down 9.74%, DXC down 8.20% and FMC down 5.48%.


The Dow Jones industrial Average is up by 0.78% to close at 35064.25. The DOW is down 0.06% over five days, up 1.87% over one month, up 1.49% over three months and up 28.03% over one year.

The trailing P/E is 23.91 compared with 26.68 year ago and an estimated future P/E of 19.45. The current dividend yield is 1.79% compared with 2.38 one year ago.

Leading stocks were CRM up 2.62%, AMGN up 2.49%, DIS up 2.39%, WMT up 1.86% and GS up 1.70%.

Trailing stocks were UNH down 2.46%, VZ down 0.13%, IBM up 0.01%, PG up 0.05%, and AAPL up 0.07%.


The NASDAQ composite is up by 0.78% and closed at 14895.12. NASDAQ is up 0.79% over five days, up 2.30% over one month, up 9.26% over 3 months and up 34.09% over one year.

Leading stocks were SCR up 79.93%, ZY up 75.15%, SITM up 31.21%, PROF up 29.04% and DXYN up 28.78%.

Trailing stocks were HOOD down 27.59%, INGN down 26.71%, ITRI down 26.44%, KPTI down 24.17%, and OSPN down 24.12%.


The MidCap SP400 is up by 0.93% to close at 2706.17. The SP400 is down 0.01% for the past 5 days, up 2.18% for the past month, down 1.21% for the past 3 months and up 41.31% over the past year.

Leading stocks were STAA up 20.43%, CAR up 9.99%, and VSAT up 8.53%.

Trailing stocks were AMED down 21.91%, CCMP down 14.43% and LHCG down 11.93%.


The SmallCap SP600 is up by 1.41% to close at 1340.40. The SP600 is down 0.32% for the past 5 days, up 1.21% for the past month, down 1.56% for the past 3 months and up 49.60% over the past year.

Leading stocks were CCRN up 24.70%, IVC up 14.49% and KLIC up 13.59%.

Trailing stocks were INGN down 26.71%, ITRI down 26.44% and OSPN down 24.12%.


The CBOE VIX dropped by 3.84% and closed at 17.28. The VIX is down 5.26% over five days, up 6.80% over one month, up 3.54% over three months and down 22.20% over one year.


On the New York stock exchange 2241 stocks advanced and 1087 declined, while on Nasdaq 3043 advanced and 1325 declined.

There were 186 new 52 week highs and 53 new 52 week lows on NYSE with 176 new highs and 107 new lows on NASDAQ.


The 2 year Treasury note yield is 0.208% and 10 year is 1.240%. The 10 year yield is up 0.95% over five days, down 8.80% over one month, down 21.39% three months ago, and up 118.22% one year ago.


SP500 Sector Performance % change

Energy +1.28

Financials +1.24

Utilities +1.13

Communication Services +0.91

Consumer Discretionary +0.91

Real Estate +0.83

Consumer Staples +0.57

Information Technology +0.54

Industrials +0.50

Materials -0.14

Health Care -0.38

Energy has been down 2.35% over five days, up 5.31% over one month, up 6.65% over three months and up 41.58% over one year.

Health Care has been down 0.86% over five days, down 3.64% over one month, down 8.11% over three months and up 32.20% over one year.


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